煤矿安全警示宣传图恐惧诉求效果研究

煤矿安全警示宣传图是普及煤矿安全知识、提升工作人员安全意识的重要途径。含有恐惧诉求效果的警示宣传图经常被作为宣传策略来说服或影响受众者的态度和行为。搜集、设计了5组有无恐惧诉求元素的煤矿安全警示宣传对比图,采用眼动试验、心率监测、调查问卷、访谈等方法研究有无恐惧诉求元素煤矿安全警示宣传图的效果差异。结果表明:被试在观看有恐惧诉求元素安全警示宣传图时,注视点较集中在含有恐惧诉求元素的兴趣区,瞳孔较大,平均心率较高;有恐惧诉求元素的安全警示图更能吸引被试的注意力,增强被试的记忆效果,但有恐惧诉求元素的安全警示宣传图在设计时要注意恐惧诉求元素区域与文字标语的配合;"漫画+文字标语"型恐惧诉求安全警示宣传图表达委婉、主题突出、言简意赅,更容易被接受。     

土壤中7种重金属和砷测定的精密度控制指标研究

通过对浙江省近700组实际土壤样品进行分析,研究了土壤中铜、铅、锌、铬、镍、镉、砷、汞7种重金属和砷测定的精密度控制指标(实验室内相对偏差和实验室间相对偏差),并与行业标准分析方法和文献进行了比较,旨在为环境监测质量控制与质量保证工作提供参考。经统计分析,建议实验室内相对偏差控制指标如下:铜,≤15%;铅,≤15%;锌,≤15%;铬,≤15%;镍,≤15%;镉,≤20%;砷,≤15%;汞,≤50%。建议实验室间相对偏差控制指标如下:铜,≤25%;铅,≤25%;锌,≤20%;铬,≤20%;镍,≤25%;镉,≤35%;砷,≤25%;汞,≤55%。     

基于CREAM和贝叶斯网络的空管人误概率预测方法

针对研究管制人因可靠性时存在的模糊性和片面性问题，采用认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）中的扩展预测法，计算10项管制通用任务的人误概率；在此基础上，以管制行为形成因子作为根节点构建贝叶斯网络，建立其与情景控制模式的不确定关系模型，对管制员在多任务中的人误概率进行预测。研究结果表明:在由相同评判者给出行为形成因子影响效应的前提下，由CREAM扩展预测法和构建贝叶斯网络的方法预测得到的多数任务的人误概率差异较大，从方法的客观性、合理性和适用性角度分析，贝叶斯网络在研究该问题时更具优势。     

安全风险分级防控在油气开发领域的探索与应用

为推动油气开发领域安全风险分级防控有效落地,提高风险预控能力,本文基于风险防控现状评估结果,探索性地研究安全风险分级防控思路,构建了油气开发领域安全风险分级防控体系推进模型,提出了逆向与正向危害因素识别方法,明确了风险评价关键隐性过程原则,构建了风险-后果-能资分级防控决断模型。选取典型试点单位进行实践,结果证明,油气开发领域安全风险分级防控体系推进模型是科学合理的,其他领域也可借鉴该模型开展安全风险分级防控工作。     

危险化学品火灾爆炸事故不安全动作分布规律研究

以我国210起典型危险化学品火灾爆炸事故为样本,对造成事故的不安全动作进行归类统计,应用云模型云发生器算法计算大类不安全动作的云模型参数值并绘制隶属云图,得出了危险化学品火灾爆炸事故中不安全动作类型和发出者分布规律及特点。结果表明:造成火源型火灾爆炸事故的违规型不安全动作平均发生次数最多,分布不均匀且不稳定,其中现场工作缺乏指导或监护发生次数最多,发出对象为监理;蓄热型火灾爆炸事故中技术型不安全动作分布表现出较大的随机性,其中物料添加不当和隐患排查不彻底发生次数最多,发出对象分别为基层人员和监理。     

水库抗旱调度分期特征确定方法研究

为在一定程度上减轻流域干旱损失,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部提出旱限水位的概念,并开展水库抗旱调度,降低干旱影响程度。旱限水位是水库低水位运行的控制性水位,其合理设置对提高区域水资源利用率意义重大,而水文气象特征在年内的阶段性变化要求基于旱限水位的水库管理应适应其变化特征。此次研究提出水库抗旱调度分期的确定方法,采用核主成分分析法提取指标的非线性特征,结合熵权法赋予指标权重后利用Fisher最优分割法对干旱的年内阶段性变化进行划分。以黄河流域刘家峡和小浪底水库为例,分期结果刘家峡水库分3期为:7月至9月,10月至3月,4月至6月;小浪底水库分3期为:7月至10月,11月至3月,4月至6月。     

Effectiveness of Panama as an intercontinental land bridge for large mammals

Habitat fragmentation is a primary driver of wildlife loss, and establishment of biological corridors is a common strategy to mitigate this problem. A flagship example is the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC), which aims to connect protected forest areas between Mexico and Panama to allow dispersal and gene flow of forest organisms. Because forests across Central America have continued to degrade, the functioning of the MBC has been questioned, but reliable estimates of species occurrence were unavailable. Large mammals are suitable indicators of forest functioning, so we assessed their conservation status across the Isthmus of Panama, the narrowest section of the MBC. We used large-scale camera-trap surveys and hierarchical multispecies occupancy models in a Bayesian framework to estimate the occupancy of 9 medium to large mammals and developed an occupancy-weighted connectivity metric to evaluate species-specific functional connectivity. White-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and tapir (Tapirus bairdii) had low expected occupancy along the MBC in Panama. Puma (Puma concolor), red brocket deer (Mazama temama), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), which are more adaptable, had higher occupancy, even in areas with low forest cover near infrastructure. However, the majority of species were subject to ≥1 gap that was larger than their known dispersal distances, suggesting poor connectivity along the MBC in Panama. Based on our results, forests in Darien, Donoso–Santa Fe, and La Amistad International Park are critical for survival of large terrestrial mammals in Panama and 2 areas need restoration.     

The potential for biodiversity offsetting to fund effective invasive species control

Compensating for biodiversity losses in 1 location by conserving or restoring biodiversity elsewhere (i.e., biodiversity offsetting) is being used increasingly to compensate for biodiversity losses resulting from development. We considered whether a form of biodiversity offsetting, enhancement offsetting (i.e., enhancing the quality of degraded natural habitats through intensive ecological management), can realistically secure additional funding to control biological invaders at a scale and duration that results in enhanced biodiversity outcomes. We suggest that biodiversity offsetting has the potential to enhance biodiversity values through funding of invasive species control, but it needs to meet 7 key conditions: be technically possible to reduce invasive species to levels that enhance native biodiversity; be affordable; be sufficiently large to compensate for the impact; be adaptable to accommodate new strategic and tactical developments while not compromising biodiversity outcomes; acknowledge uncertainties associated with managing pests; be based on an explicit risk assessment that identifies the cost of not achieving target outcomes; and include financial mechanisms to provide for in‐perpetuity funding. The challenge then for conservation practitioners, advocates, and policy makers is to develop frameworks that allow for durable and effective partnerships with developers to realize the full potential of enhancement offsets, which will require a shift away from traditional preservation‐focused approaches to biodiversity management. El Potencial de la Compensación de la Biodiversidad para Financiar Controles Efectivos de Especies Invasoras     

Impact of conservation areas on trophic interactions between apex predators and herbivores on coral reefs

Apex predators are declining at alarming rates due to exploitation by humans, but we have yet to fully discern the impacts of apex predator loss on ecosystem function. In a management context, it is critically important to clarify the role apex predators play in structuring populations of lower trophic levels. Thus, we examined the top‐down influence of reef sharks (an apex predator on coral reefs) and mesopredators on large‐bodied herbivores. We measured the abundance, size structure, and biomass of apex predators, mesopredators, and herbivores across fished, no‐take, and no‐entry management zones in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. Shark abundance and mesopredator size and biomass were higher in no‐entry zones than in fished and no‐take zones, which indicates the viability of strictly enforced human exclusion areas as tools for the conservation of predator communities. Changes in predator populations due to protection in no‐entry zones did not have a discernible influence on the density, size, or biomass of different functional groups of herbivorous fishes. The lack of a relationship between predators and herbivores suggests that top‐down forces may not play a strong role in regulating large‐bodied herbivorous coral reef fish populations. Given this inconsistency with traditional ecological theories of trophic cascades, trophic structures on coral reefs may need to be reassessed to enable the establishment of appropriate and effective management regimes. El Impacto de las Áreas de Conservación sobre las Interacciones Tróficas entre los Depredadores Dominantes y los Herbívoros en los Arrecifes de Coral     

房地产开发地铁振动达标距离研究

已建和待建的多条地铁线路穿过某房地产开发地块,为了防治地铁运行对建筑造成振动环境影响,需要设定建筑靠近地铁的最小达标距离,包括采取减振措施后的距离。通过现场系统实验监测结合数值模型分析,从工程实践的角度提出了上述距离。对于实验中观察到随距离出现振动局部放大以及进口与国产仪器监测结果不同的现象,佐证了有关学者的理论与实验分析,提出:(1)现有地铁环境影响评价报告常用的60m评价范围偏小,推荐可扩大至80~100m;(2)迫切需要新的振动环境标准发布,避免有关项目的环境管理要求偏低。